Severe thunderstorms with considerable potential for producing damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are likely across much of the southern through mid Atlantic Coast region, particularly across the Carolinas into southern/central Virginia this afternoon and evening.

Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, April 19

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms with considerable potential for producing damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are likely across much of the southern through mid Atlantic Coast region, particularly across the Carolinas into southern/central Virginia this afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 10%

wind 45%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 191253

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VIRGINIA

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms with considerable potential for producing damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are likely across much of the southern through mid Atlantic Coast region, particularly across the Carolinas into southern/central Virginia this afternoon and evening.

Coastal Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States

Few changes to ongoing Moderate/Enhanced Risk Outlook with the 13Z update.

An upper-level trough, which features a cyclonically curved strong polar jet within its base, is centered along the lower/middle Mississippi River Valley and Middle Gulf Coast early this morning. This upper trough will continue to gradually deepen over the Tennessee Valley, with the aforementioned polar jet ejecting northeastward, largely atop an east/northeastward-advancing cold front. A significant deep-layer strengthening of southerly winds above 1 km AGL will occur during the day, highlighted by as much as 90 kt/70 kt at 500 mb/700 mb, respectively, particularly across Georgia into the Carolinas and southern Virginia.

Semi-continuous bands of convection/squall line are ongoing from northern Florida into Georgia and the western Carolinas early this morning as of 13Z. Pockets of considerable cloud cover precedes this convection (and the cold front itself), which casts some uncertainty regarding the overall degree of destabilization and timing of general intensification, although steady low-level moistening and robust deep-layer/low-level winds will be compensatory factors. Guidance generally remains suggestive that an influx of boundary layer moisture across the Carolina coastal plain into the Piedmont may be accompanied by moderate boundary layer destabilization (including CAPE up to 1500 J/kg).

The aforementioned bands of convection should gradually increase in intensity across Georgia and the upstate Carolinas through late morning/early afternoon, with a semi-broken linearly prevalent convective mode expected. The strengthening deep-layer/low-level winds will likely yield further upscale growth and acceleration of convection across the Carolinas into southern Virginia through peak heating. Severe convective gusts may become fairly widespread. While damaging wind gusts appear to be the main threat with the northeastward and eastward advancing line of storms, a few embedded tornadoes may also be possible. Preceding the linearly prevalent convection, other showers/thunderstorms coincident with the warm/moist conveyor may also deepen and become increasingly rooted within the destabilizing boundary layer this afternoon across the Piedmont and coastal plain of the Carolinas into southern Virginia. These storms could materialize in a more discrete convective mode, at least initially conducive for supercells with some tornado risk aside from damaging winds.

Eastern Kentucky/Tennessee and Central Appalachians

Modest destabilization should occur this afternoon in relatively close proximity to the surface low and near/just ahead of the adjacent cold front. This should allow for at least isolated low-topped thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe.

Central/northeast Oregon

A couple of stronger storms could occur late this afternoon/early evening near/just ahead of an advancing cold front. Steep lapse rates and strengthening winds aloft could contribute to some convectively enhanced wind gusts, although the overall severe potential is currently expected to remain very low/isolated.

..Guyer/Goss.. 04/19/2019

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

National Risk Overview

Friday, April 19
TORNADO: 10%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 45%
Saturday, April 20
ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, April 21
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, April 22
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, April 23
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, April 24
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, April 25
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, April 26
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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