Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, July 18

Outlook Summary

A few strong storms may develop across parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes region Thursday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 160653

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION

### SUMMARY

A few strong storms may develop across parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes region Thursday.

Northern Plains/Great Lakes Region

Mid-level heights are expected to rise across the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region during the day3 period as upper ridging gradually expands across the southern 2/3rds of the CONUS. Latest guidance suggests a short-wave trough will eject across the upper Great Lakes into ON early in the period. Convection will likely be ongoing at sunrise ahead of this feature, aided in part by LLJ over northern lower MI. While some of this activity could prove strong, the primary concern for robust convection would be later in the day along a boundary draped across lower MI-WI-southern MN. Capping will likely suppress thunderstorm activity along this boundary much of the period. However, convection could evolve by early evening along southern fringe of stronger westerlies. If so, wind will be the primary risk.

Upstream across ND, strong boundary-layer heating will contribute to destabilization across the northern Plains ahead of a progressive cold front. This wind shift should settle into central ND during the evening as notable short-wave trough ejects along the international border. Latest guidance suggests convection should evolve and spread east after sunset within a strongly sheared environment that would favor organization. Wind is the primary risk with this activity.

..Darrow.. 07/16/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, July 16
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 30%
Wednesday, July 17
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, July 18
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, July 19
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, July 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, July 21
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, July 22
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, July 23
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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