Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, October 15

Outlook Summary

A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the early evening across parts of southeast Oklahoma, western Arkansas and northeast Texas. Isolated strong to locally severe storms are also possible across the Deep South.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 150528

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA…WESTERN ARKANSAS…NORTHERN TEXAS…EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA…SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI…SOUTHERN ALABAMA…SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA…AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE

### SUMMARY

A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the early evening across parts of southeast Oklahoma, western Arkansas and northeast Texas. Isolated strong to locally severe storms are also possible across the Deep South.

Synopsis

An upper-level trough will progress eastward out of the northern Plains and amplify across the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley regions. At the surface, a cold front will surge southward into the southern Plains, reaching the Red River by late afternoon.

Southeast Oklahoma and north Texas

Dewpoints ahead of the surging cold front are expected to reach the upper 60s F to low 70s F, supporting 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. Strengthening mid/upper-level flow in response to the amplifying trough to the north will foster deep-layer shear supporting organized storms and perhaps a supercell or two. Large hail will be possible given sufficient mid-level lapse rates and long hodographs. While low-level flow/shear is not expected to be overly strong, a brief window will exist for a tornado with any initial supercell development. Strong linear forcing from the advancing front will likely cause some upscale growth with isolated strong/severe wind gusts becoming the main threat.

Gulf Coast Vicinity

A weak warm advection regime along a quasi-stationary boundary will lead to scattered thunderstorm development from southern MS/AL into portions of the FL Panhandle and adjacent southwestern GA. Ample cloud cover is likely which will limit daytime heating across much of the region. Adequate low/mid-level flow is forecast such that isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with any of the stronger storms, despite very poor lapse rates within the column.

..Wendt/Smith.. 10/15/2019

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, October 15
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Wednesday, October 16
ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, October 17
ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, October 18
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, October 19
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, October 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, October 21
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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