Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, November 16

Outlook Summary

The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. tonight.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 170039

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. tonight.

01Z Outlook Update

A cluster of thunderstorms approaching North Carolina coastal areas appears supported by an area of upper forcing for ascent, which has been spreading northeastward, east of coastal areas, to the north of the center of the mid-level cyclone. It appears that this activity could spread into the North Carolina Outer and Inner Banks vicinity, where the surface frontal zone remains closest to coastal areas. Elevated instability to the immediate cool/northwest side of the frontal zone is generally weak due to poor mid-level lapse rates, and it is not clear that thermodynamic profiles evident in the 17/00Z raob from Morehead City NC will support lightning. It appears that the risk for lightning becomes increasingly negligible with inland extent from immediate coastal areas.

..Kerr.. 11/17/2019

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

National Risk Overview

Saturday, November 16
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Sunday, November 17
ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, November 18
ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, November 19
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, November 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, November 21
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, November 22
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, November 23
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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