You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 061457 SPC AC 061457
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0857 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2019
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
An expansive upper trough is expected to extend from the Hudson Bay through southern CA early D4/Monday. Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that this upper trough will gradually progress eastward, accompanied by a strengthening wind field. By D6/Wednesday, strong mid-level flow (i.e. around 100 kt at 500mb) is expected to extend throughout the southern periphery of this upper trough, arcing from the northern Plains into the TN Valley and then back through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Despite this strong flow aloft, stable low-level conditions will limit thunderstorm development throughout much of the week. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and immediately behind a cold front across the Lower/Mid MS Valley on D4/Monday and Southeast on D5/Tuesday.
Active upper-air pattern is expected to persist through the end of the week with medium-range guidance showing the potential for another southern-stream shortwave at the end of the week. Poor model agreement regarding the timing of this system leads to low predictability, but the overall pattern may result in some severe threat if sufficient moisture return occurs.
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