Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, July 3

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large hail and strong wind gusts remain possible tonight across eastern Montana and parts of the Dakotas.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 040056

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2020

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large hail and strong wind gusts remain possible tonight across eastern Montana and parts of the Dakotas.

01z Update

Northern High Plains: Significant convection has developed over eastern MT ahead of an apparent weak disturbance. 00z sounding from GGW exhibited MLCAPE of 3000 J/kg with ample shear for sustained rotating updrafts, though the lowest 3km flow remains quite weak. UNR sounding also exhibited adequate instability with favorably steep lapse rates for robust updrafts. Given the modest 500mb flow across this region it appears thunderstorms should progress across the remainder of eastern MT into western ND/northwestern SD this evening, especially as LLJ strengthens ahead of this activity. Wind/hail remain the primary threats.

Eastern CO to western AR: Well-defined mid-level vort is located over eastern KS. This feature is expected to move into northeast OK by 04/12z. Latest model guidance continues to suggest scattered convection may once again develop ahead of the vort after dark. 00z sounding from OUN is weakly capped with ample buoyancy for robust updrafts that would drift south ahead of the upper vort.

Scattered strong storms are noted across the central High Plains tonight. Some of this activity may linger into the late evening hours as LLJ strengthens across northwest KS into northeast CO.

Middle Atlantic: Scattered convection is shifting south across the northern Middle Atlantic this evening. Convection has likely peaked and will soon begin to weaken as it encounters less buoyancy near the coast. 00z sounding from WAL has poor lapse rates and modest shear; however, thermodynamic environment appears too meager for more than a brief wind gust for the next 1-2 hours.

..Darrow.. 07/04/2020

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

National Risk Overview

Friday, July 3
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Saturday, July 4
TORNADO: low
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Sunday, July 5
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, July 6
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, July 7
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, July 8
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, July 9
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, July 10
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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