Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Outlook for Sunday, July 5

Outlook Summary

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern Plains Sunday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the central and southern High Plains as well as southern New England.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 040546

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2020

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern Plains Sunday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the central and southern High Plains as well as southern New England.

Northern Plains/northern High Plains

An upper ridge is forecast to extend from the Southwest into the Upper Midwest early Sunday morning. Northwestern periphery of this ridge is expected to dampen throughout the day as a shortwave trough progresses eastward/northeastward through the Canadian Prairie Provinces and adjacent portions of the northern Plains. Progression of this shortwave trough is expected to encourage modest southeastward motion of a weak cold front. By 00Z Monday, this front will likely extend from central Manitoba southwestward into the far western NE Panhandle.

Warm and moist conditions are anticipated along and south of this front. Convective initiation is forecast along the front Sunday afternoon where ample low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong buoyancy. Much of this area will be on the southern periphery of the stronger flow aloft, limiting vertical shear. Even so, the instability is still expected to be strong enough to support updrafts capable of large hail and/or damaging wind gusts. Given the weak shear and likelihood for outflow-dominant storm structures, storm motion and new storm development could be somewhat chaotic. Storms should wane a few hours after sunset.

Back farther west (i.e. across portions of WY and southeast MT), upslope flow behind the front will contribute to stronger vertical shear Sunday afternoon and evening. Less low-level moisture will exist here versus farther east, tempering buoyancy, but the stronger vertical shear could still result in a few more organized storm structures capable of large hail and strong wind gusts.

Central/Southern High Plains

Diurnal thunderstorms may move off the higher terrain during the afternoon. Southeasterly surface winds beneath northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to moderate shear, which could result in a few stronger/more organized storms capable of a strong wind gust or two.

Additionally, model guidance is in good agreement that a convectively induced vorticity maximum will linger near the southern CO/KS border, potentially contributing to higher thunderstorm coverage over southwest KS and portions of the OK/TX Panhandles. Cloud cover associated with this vorticity maximum will limit heating, but cool temperatures aloft should help support modest instability. A few stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts and/or hail are possible.

Southern New England

A cold front is expected to move across the Northeast states Sunday afternoon, ahead of a shortwave trough forecast to move through later Sunday evening. Instability will likely be modest, but deep northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to moderate vertical shear, which could support a few bowing multicell segments capable of damaging wind gusts.

..Mosier.. 07/04/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

National Risk Overview

Saturday, July 4
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Sunday, July 5
TORNADO: low
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Monday, July 6
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, July 7
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, July 8
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, July 9
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, July 10
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.


About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.