Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, August 8

Outlook Summary

Strong to severe storms are expected across parts of South Dakota and Nebraska Saturday evening into the overnight hours. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be the main hazards with this activity.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 071711

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 07 2020

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA

### SUMMARY

Strong to severe storms are expected across parts of South Dakota and Nebraska Saturday evening into the overnight hours. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be the main hazards with this activity.

North-central Great Plains

The southern fringe of modest mid-level westerly flow will overspread parts of the north-central Great Plains to the north of a mid-level anticyclone centered over the south-central U.S. Embedded within this flow to the south of stronger cyclonic mid-level flow over MT, an impulse will move across the north-central High Plains during the period. In the low levels, a front will become draped across parts of SD/NE into WY and will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development late in the day. Southerly to southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of rich moisture across parts of KS/NE with 60s-70s deg F dewpoints. Model guidance indicates isolated thunderstorms will develop during the late afternoon over WY and perhaps near the Black Hills/Badlands before additional storms develop during the evening. A reservoir of strong instability (MLCAPE ranging from 1500 J/kg near the WY/NE border to 4000-5000 J/kg in central NE) coupled with sufficient shear for storm organization, will favor severe thunderstorms with the more mature/intense updrafts. A thunderstorm cluster will likely evolve during the evening and move east across NE and maintain a lingering wind risk into the overnight near the terminus of a central Great Plains southerly LLJ.

..Smith.. 08/07/2020

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

National Risk Overview

Friday, August 7
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Saturday, August 8
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Sunday, August 9
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, August 10
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, August 11
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, August 12
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, August 13
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, August 14
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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