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Outlook for Wednesday, April 14

Outlook Summary

Strong thunderstorms may impact western and central portions of the Gulf coastal plain, as well as southern portions of the Mid Atlantic Coast states, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 131745

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS …SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI…SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE….SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA

CORRECTED GRAPHIC DISCREPANCY IN GULF COASTAL VICINITY

SUMMARY

Strong thunderstorms may impact western and central portions of the Gulf coastal plain, as well as southern portions of the Mid Atlantic Coast states, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Synopsis

Models suggest that a blocking mid-level high will continue to develop and become more prominent during this period, centered across British Columbia. This will contribute to the maintenance of a split flow across much of North America into the western Atlantic, with several broad, embedded cyclonic circulations likely to persist.

At mid-levels, there may be little movement to one of these lows centered across the Great Basin, to the southeast of the building high. In response to a short wave trough digging across the Canadian Prairies, to the east of the high, a downstream low may slowly shift southeast of the Upper Midwest through the Great Lakes region, with some southeastward development of another low also possible across the western Atlantic. To the south and southwest of the eastern perturbations, models indicate that there may be some suppression of mid-level subtropical ridging, with flow tending to veer from westerly to west-northwesterly across the north central through eastern Gulf coast vicinity.

Initially progressing into or approaching the Appalachians and Mid South/Ozark Plateau vicinity by 12Z Wednesday, a cold front is forecast to advance into the Southeast and through the lower Mississippi Valley/northwestern Gulf coast region by the end of the period. There has already been a preceding southward surge of colder air through much of central and southwest Texas, which likely will be reinforced. A preceding convectively generated or enhanced surface boundary appears likely to persist across parts of the upper Texas coastal plain and southern Louisiana into the north central Gulf of Mexico.

Gulf coastal plain

The most substantive boundary-layer destabilization Wednesday is expected to be confined to pre-cold frontal areas along and to the southwest of the convective boundary. Although smaller scale developments remain unclear due to model spread, which could impact the magnitude of this destabilization, it appears that low/mid-level warm advection along and north of the convective boundary could contribute to thunderstorm development across the upper Texas coastal plain into southern Louisiana by early Wednesday. It appears that this will occur ahead of a weak perturbation migrating around the periphery of the subtropical ridging, and could coincide with increasing boundary-layer destabilization.

Depending upon the timing, it is possible that increasing inflow of moderately large CAPE (in excess of 1000 J/kg), in the presence of modestly sheared 30-40 kt westerly to northwesterly mean flow, could become conducive to the evolution of an organized cluster of storms which could pose a risk for severe hail and wind. As this activity tends to propagate offshore, an upstream perturbation may contribute similar storm development near the trailing outflow and cold front intersection, near upper Texas coastal areas later Wednesday afternoon or evening.

Southern Mid Atlantic Coast region

Models suggest that the warm sector of a weak developing surface low, along the front to the east of the southern Appalachians, could become conducive to vigorous thunderstorm development late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Although boundary-layer moisture might be fairly modest, deep boundary-layer mixing, in the presence of strengthening vertical shear, might contribute an environment supportive of thunderstorms capable of producing small hail and potentially damaging surface gusts.

..Kerr.. 04/13/2021

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, April 13
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Wednesday, April 14
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Thursday, April 15
ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, April 16
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, April 17
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, April 18
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, April 19
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, April 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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