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Outlook for Thursday, April 15

Outlook Summary

Severe storms are not forecast on Thursday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 130706

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe storms are not forecast on Thursday.

Synopsis

An upper low over the lower Great Lakes region will pivot eastward to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast by Friday morning. Further west, the upper low over the Great Basin will become an open wave as it emerges into the Plains. At the surface, a cold front will extend south/southwest from a low offshore from DE/MD into southern GA and then likely just offshore the central Gulf Coast and into southern TX. The front will drop southward across the northern FL Peninsula while stalling over the northern Gulf. In response to the ejecting western upper trough, weak lee low development across eastern NM will result in modest low-level warm advection across TX. While Gulf moisture will mostly be cut off thanks to the cold front draped over the region, upper 50s to near 60 F surface dewpoints should work their way northward toward the Permian Basin after 00z. Showers and perhaps some elevated thunderstorms will be possible, but severe potential appears limited by weak instability and a strong cap.

..Leitman.. 04/13/2021

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, April 13
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Wednesday, April 14
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Thursday, April 15
ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, April 16
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, April 17
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, April 18
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, April 19
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, April 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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