Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Outlook for Sunday, May 9

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms are expected from parts of central/east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes all appear possible.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 30%

hail 30%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090536

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sun May 09 2021

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN TENNESSEE

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms are expected from parts of central/east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes all appear possible.

Central Texas to Middle Tennessee

Early this morning a mature MCS has evolved over northeast KS/northwest MO in advance of a mid-level short-wave trough. This complex of storms will likely begin to propagate southeast as LLJ veers across the Ozark Plateau into southern IL by the start of the period. Leading edge of this convection should approach southern MO by daybreak, just ahead of the cold front which should advance to a position from south-central MO-northwest AR-northern TX by 18z.

Latest short-range model guidance suggests weak mid-level height falls will spread across the OH Valley during the day1 period as a low amplitude trough ejects into IN by 18z, then into western PA by early evening. In the wake of this feature, surface pressures will rise over the middle of the country forcing a strong cold front to surge south into the southern Plains and lower MS Valley during peak-heating hours. This boundary will serve as the primary focus for robust convection, along with outflow from aforementioned MCS as it propagates into the Mid-South region.

Large-scale deep westerly flow will materialize across the pre-frontal warm sector from north TX into TN as the primary LLJ translates across KY into western PA ahead of the primary short wave. As a result, boundary-layer heating and frontal convergence will be the primary mechanisms for thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings suggest supercells are likely ahead of the front as surface-6km bulk shear will be on the order of 40kt where MLCAPE values should exceed 2000 J/kg. Local hail algorithms suggest 2+ inch stones are possible with the strongest storms. Additionally, while the more focused low-level shear/convergence will be well northeast of this region, there is some potential for a few tornadoes with these supercells. Overall, an elongated corridor of scattered severe storms should ultimately evolve from portions of central/northeast TX into western TN, primary along an axis of stronger buoyancy.

..Darrow/Karstens.. 05/09/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

National Risk Overview

Sunday, May 9
TORNADO: 5%
HAIL: 30%
WIND: 30%
Monday, May 10
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Tuesday, May 11
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Wednesday, May 12
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, May 13
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, May 14
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, May 15
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.


About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.