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Outlook for Monday, May 10

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and severe wind gusts may occur Monday across parts of south-central Texas. Other strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast, as well as southern Virginia into the Carolinas.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090558

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun May 09 2021

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and severe wind gusts may occur Monday across parts of south-central Texas. Other strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast, as well as southern Virginia into the Carolinas.

South-Central Texas

A nearly stalled front should extend across central TX on Monday, with a dryline extending southward from this front into north-central Mexico. Nearly zonal mid-level flow will persist over the southern Plains, with nebulous large-scale forcing for ascent. Even so, low-level convergence along the front and sharpening dryline and modest east-southeasterly low-level flow should prove sufficient in tandem with strong diurnal heating to foster isolated convective development Monday afternoon/evening. The airmass along/south of the front and east of the dryline should become moderately to strongly unstable, with MLCAPE of 2000-3500+ J/kg forecast. Although the stronger mid-level westerly flow is forecast to remain mostly north of the front, winds should strengthen at upper levels. Effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt will support supercell structures with any storms that can form.

The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and a long, generally straight hodograph at mid/upper levels suggest large to perhaps very large hail should be the main threat with any supercells. Isolated severe/damaging wind gusts may also occur with both the initially discrete storms, and any clusters that can develop east-southeastward through the evening. There is still some uncertainty with how much convection will ultimately form across the warm sector in south-central TX given the lack of obvious forcing aloft. But, the 12Z ECMWF and 00Z GFS both show a robust convective precipitation signal, and some convection-allowing guidance also develops multiple supercells across this region. Accordingly, confidence in convective initiation occurring has increased enough to include greater severe hail/wind probabilities across part of south-central TX.

Southern Virginia into the Carolinas

A low-amplitude shortwave trough should move off the East Coast early in the period. Other weak, convectively augmented mid-level perturbations may move eastward across the Carolinas and vicinity through the day. A trailing cold front extending across southern VA into western NC should be the primary forcing mechanism that will focus storm development Monday afternoon. Diurnal heating of a fairly moist low-level airmass will probably support MLCAPE reaching 1000-1500 J/kg by peak afternoon heating. 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should foster a mix of supercells and clusters with initial development, with a tendency for some upscale growth through the afternoon and early evening given the linear forcing of the front. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts both appear possible with these storms as they move east-southeastward. They should eventually move offshore and/or weaken by Monday evening.

Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast

Storms will probably be ongoing at the start of the period Monday morning across some part of the lower MS Valley and Southeast, but there is uncertainty with both the placement and intensity of this convection. Most guidance suggests that the better isolated severe storm threat should remain mostly to the south of these morning storms. Somewhat farther north, a surface front will likely serve as the northern limit for any appreciable severe potential. Given nebulous large-scale ascent forecast in model guidance, it remains unclear how much additional convection will develop Monday afternoon along/south of the front. Any storms that do form could become severe given a weakly to moderately unstable airmass and the presence of 35-50 kt of westerly mid-level flow. Isolated large hail and strong to damaging wind gusts should be the main threats. With considerable uncertainty regarding overall storm coverage and the effect of morning storms on the degree of destabilization Monday afternoon, will maintain a broad Marginal Risk area.

North-Central/East Texas to the ArkLaTex

Isolated to scattered storms may form through the period from parts of north-central/east TX to the ArkLaTex vicinity. Most of this activity should occur to the north of a surface front. But, the shallow nature of this front and the continued presence of steep mid-level lapse rates should allow for a reservoir of potentially moderate instability to remain across this region (MUCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg). Large hail will likely be the main severe threat with any storms that occur, as 40-50 kt of mid-level westerly flow will foster similar values of effective bulk shear.

..Gleason.. 05/09/2021

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

National Risk Overview

Sunday, May 9
TORNADO: 5%
HAIL: 30%
WIND: 30%
Monday, May 10
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Tuesday, May 11
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, May 12
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, May 13
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, May 14
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, May 15
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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