Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 15

Outlook Summary

Marginally severe thunderstorms may impact the coast of the Carolinas, as well as the central and eastern Gulf Coast today. Marginally severe hail and strong wind gusts will also be possible in the northern High Plains.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 150541

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS…CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST STATES…AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Marginally severe thunderstorms may impact the coast of the Carolinas, as well as the central and eastern Gulf Coast today. Marginally severe hail and strong wind gusts will also be possible in the northern High Plains.

Carolinas Coast/Central and Eastern Gulf Coast

An upper-level trough will move across the southern and central Appalachians today as a cold front advances southeastward across the Carolinas and eastern Gulf Coast states. By afternoon, the front should be located from far southern Mississippi into the Florida Panhandle and far eastern Carolinas. Thunderstorm development will be likely along parts of the front during the afternoon. Surface dewpoints along and south of the front in the 70 to 75 F range should result in the development of moderate to strong instability, with MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. The storms are expected to remain multicellular along most of the front. The instability and steep low-level lapse rates will make marginally severe wind gusts possible. In addition, a few rotating storms with strong wind gusts and hail could develop in the eastern Carolinas, where deep-layer shear is forecast to be just above 30 kt.

Northern High Plains

An upper-level ridge will be in place today from the central Rockies northward into the northern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from parts of Nebraska north-northwestward into southeast Montana. Moderate to strong instability will be likely along this corridor by afternoon. As surface temperatures peak, isolated convection may initiate along the instability corridor. The most likely area for initiation would be in the Black Hills where convection will be aided by topography. Any cell that can become rooted in the weakly forced environment could have a potential for strong wind gusts and hail.

..Broyles/Moore.. 06/15/2021

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, June 15
TORNADO: low
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Wednesday, June 16
TORNADO: low
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Thursday, June 17
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, June 18
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, June 19
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, June 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, June 21
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, June 22
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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