Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 16

Outlook Summary

A few marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota Wednesday afternoon and overnight.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 150517

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA

### SUMMARY

A few marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota Wednesday afternoon and overnight.

Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley

A shortwave trough will continue eastward across MB with tail end grazing northern MT during the day. This will shunt the upper ridge east across the upper MS Valley. Later in the evening and overnight, height falls will occur over the area as the aforementioned shortwave trough turns rightward. A surface trough/wind shift will stretch from northwest MN at 00Z into western NE, and will move slowly eastward overnight. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will develop over the MO Valley during the day, reaching southwest MN early Thursday.

Warm advection and lift within the surface trough may initiate a few storms by 00Z over northern MN and eastern SD, where moderate instability will exist. Hot temperatures west of the surface trough may mix out CIN with at least isolated storms expected. Both hail and wind will be possible given ample instability and 40+ kt deep-layer shear. Storms over northern MN may persist overnight, traveling southeastward as the low-level jet veers, with locally damaging gusts. Models differ on convective coverage, but there may eventually be enough evidence for a Slight Risk in later outlooks.

..Jewell.. 06/15/2021

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, June 15
TORNADO: low
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Wednesday, June 16
TORNADO: low
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Thursday, June 17
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, June 18
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, June 19
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, June 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, June 21
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, June 22
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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