Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Outlook for Thursday, June 17

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong to severe storms are possible over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region on Thursday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 150728

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA INTO WISCONSIN

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong to severe storms are possible over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region on Thursday.

Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes

A positive-tilt shortwave trough will gradually shift southeastward across the northern Plains and upper MS valley on Thursday, with cooling aloft most prominent overnight. This will shunt the upper ridge eastward across MI during the day and into the Northeast by 12Z Friday.

At the surface, a trough/wind shift will extend roughly from MN into NE, with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints from the mid MO Valley northward into MN, WI, and the U.P. of MI. The surface trough is forecast to be quasi-stationary through the period, providing several bouts of thunderstorms.

Thursday morning, storms may be ongoing across southern MN or IA, depending on how much nocturnal convection occurs Wednesday night, with strong wind gusts possible. Additional storms are likely near the surface trough (and perhaps residual outflow boundaries) farther north and west, though drying will increase late in the period with veering 850 mb winds. Over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE is possible by late afternoon where the air mass remains undisturbed from earlier storms. Effective shear is forecast to be around 50 kt, which will support a wind and hail threat.

..Jewell.. 06/15/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, June 15
TORNADO: low
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Wednesday, June 16
TORNADO: low
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Thursday, June 17
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, June 18
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, June 19
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, June 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, June 21
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, June 22
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.


About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.