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Outlook for Monday, July 26

Outlook Summary

Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in parts of the Northeast and upper Mississippi Valley.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 240729

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in parts of the Northeast and upper Mississippi Valley.

Northeast

An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Northeast on Monday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward across the central Appalachians and lower Great Lakes. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints mostly in the 60s F. The highest surface dewpoints are forecast to be located across northern New England where moderate instability appears likely to develop by afternoon. Convection will most likely initiate in these areas of stronger instability and in the higher terrain. The moderate instability combined with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 kt range (evident on forecast soundings) should support an isolated wind-damage threat. The wind-damage threat will likely be greatest along the leading edge of short multicell line segments that move into areas where low-level lapse rates are steep during the late afternoon and early evening.

Upper Mississippi Valley

A northwest mid-level flow pattern will remain in place across the northern Plains, upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region on Monday. At the surface, a low will move southeastward into the northern Plains as a moist airmass advects northward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Although the airmass should remain capped for much of the day, elevated thunderstorm development will be possible during the evening across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form in north-central Minnesota during the early evening and move southeastward into north-central Wisconsin during the mid to late evening. NAM forecast soundings along this corridor have moderate instability, concentrated above 750 mb. Effective shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 40 kt range. This thermodynamic and wind shear profile could be enough for a marginal severe threat with elevated rotating storms being accompanied by hail and strong gusty winds.

..Broyles.. 07/24/2021

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

National Risk Overview

Saturday, July 24
TORNADO: 5%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 15%
Sunday, July 25
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: 5%
Monday, July 26
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, July 27
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, July 28
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, July 29
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, July 30
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, July 31
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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