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Outlook for Saturday, October 16

Outlook Summary

A few severe storms remain possible across parts of the Northeast States through early evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 161933

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM VERMONT SOUTHWARD INTO NEW JERSEY AND VICINITY

### SUMMARY

A few severe storms remain possible across parts of the Northeast States through early evening.

Northeast and Mid Atlantic

A line of storms continues to move rapidly east across VT, curling southwestward into southern NY and eastern PA. Northern parts of the line have shown relative strength, with MLCAPE to 500 J/kg, cooler temperatures aloft and stronger/backed 850 mb winds to 50 kt. A risk of damaging gusts or a QLCS tornado may persist for a few more hours as the low-topped convective line traverses the instability plume, and before the boundary layer begins to cool.

For more information see mesoscale discussion 1873.

..Jewell.. 10/16/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021/

Northeast

A high-shear/low-CAPE convective episode is expected to peak later this afternoon. A swath of frontal precip, predominately stratiform with embedded higher-reflectivity cores and sporadic lightning flashes, is ongoing from northern NY southwest through central PA. Some breaks in downstream cloud coverage should result in somewhat more robust heating across the eastern PA/NJ area south. However, buoyancy in this regime will remain meager owing to weak mid-level lapse rates. Farther north, where deep-layer ascent will be stronger, greater boundary-layer heating will likely be confined to a corridor along the Upper Hudson to Champlain Valleys. This latter region should coincide with amplification of 850-700 mb wind field this afternoon, where enlarged low-level hodographs will foster an embedded tornado risk for a brief period later this afternoon. Otherwise, a thin, low-topped QLCS is expected to evolve east-northeastward offering a threat for scattered damaging winds from strong to locally severe gusts. These threats should wane after dusk as convection spreads across New England.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

National Risk Overview

Saturday, October 16
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: low
WIND: 15%
Sunday, October 17
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Monday, October 18
ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, October 19
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, October 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, October 21
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, October 22
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, October 23
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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