You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160849 SPC AC 160849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement Day 4 (Tuesday Oct. 19) in progressing an upper low eastward out of the Rockies and across the northern and central Plains. This feature will be accompanied by an associated surface low/front that will advance across the Plains with time. With return of only modest low-level moisture (50s dewpoints) ahead of the front, minimal instability suggests that any severe risk would remain limited and isolated.
Modeled evolution of the upper low into Day 5 and beyond begins to differ amongst various models, in part due to the degree of interaction of the feature with cyclonic flow surrounding a low over northern Ontario. While it is apparent that a surface front will continue moving eastward across the U.S. through latter stages of the period, timing/location/strength of the front cannot be confidently ascertained. As such, no assessment of severe weather potential is being offered from Day 5 through the end of the period.
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