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Outlook for Wednesday, August 10

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and eastern Oregon and vicinity.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 101951

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND EASTERN OR AND VICINITY

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and eastern Oregon and vicinity.

20z update

### Mid-Atlantic through this evening

Clusters of storms have formed near the Blue Ridge in VA, and along local convergence zones near the west shore of Chesapeake Bay. Outside of the storms, surface temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s F with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s, which is driving MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. Additional clustering and some upscale growth is expected through the afternoon with outflow interactions, as storms spread eastward. Though temperature/moisture profiles are not particularly favorable for intense downdrafts, precipitation loading and 0-3 km lapse rates near 8 C/km will support isolated tree damage with primarily sub-severe gusts.

Eastern OR into southeastern WA this afternoon/evening

An embedded shortwave trough has pivoted northward from OR to the Olympic Peninsula, with some associated/elevated convection. Farther east, forcing for ascent is more nebulous, and thunderstorm development will likely depend on terrain circulations across eastern OR and northern WA. The more probable area will be across east central/northeast OR, along the west edge of the monsoonal moisture plume and where boundary-layer dewpoints are being maintained in the 55-60 F range. MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg, steep lapse rates, and effective bulk shear near 30 kt will support the potential for isolated storms with strong-severe outflow winds and some hail later this afternoon/evening.

..Thompson.. 08/10/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022/

Mid Atlantic

Warm and humid surface conditions are present today over the Mid Atlantic region, with strong daytime heating resulting in afternoon MLCAPE of 2500 J/kg. A consensus of 12z model guidance suggests that scattered thunderstorms will form by early-afternoon over the mountains of eastern WV and western VA. This activity will spread slowly eastward into the Chesapeake Bay region. Forecast soundings and recent ACARS data from the DC/Baltimore area show very weak winds aloft and poor mid-level lapse rates. Given the lack of large scale forcing mechanisms, convection that forms in this area should be weakly organized. Nevertheless, isolated tree damage may briefly occur with the strongest cells.

WA/OR

An upper low is tracking northward off the OR/WA coast today, with relatively strong southerly deep-layer flow across the interior Pacific Northwest. Mostly clear skies and dewpoints in the 50s will result in a corridor of sufficient CAPE to pose a conditional threat of strong/severe storms this afternoon and evening across the MRGL risk area. Model guidance suggests that the coverage of storms will be quite limited. Nevertheless, any storm that can form/persist will pose a risk of gusty winds and hail.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, August 10: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, August 11: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, August 12: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, August 13: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, August 14: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, August 15: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, August 16: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, August 17: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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