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Outlook for Thursday, August 11

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong storms may occur across the northern Rockies, but the overall severe threat will be relatively low.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 101721

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong storms may occur across the northern Rockies, but the overall severe threat will be relatively low.

Synopsis

A midlevel high will persist over the central Rockies/High Plains, with an upstream trough over the Pacific Northwest, and a downstream trough over the OH Valley/Northeast. An initial/weak cold front from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic today will drift southward into the northern Gulf states and Southeast, while a reinforcing cold front moves southward into the OH Valley/Northeast. The richest low-level moisture and larger buoyancy will be confined along and south of the initial cold front, where vertical shear will be weak. Isolated downbursts cannot be ruled out across the Carolinas, but poor lapse rates will limit the threat.

The reinforcing cold front will become quasi-stationary from SD into IA, and may provide a focus for thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon. However, midlevel lapse rates will be poor across IA during the afternoon, where a narrow corridor of residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s will contribute to weak buoyancy. Where midlevel lapse rates will be steeper over SD, the boundary layer will likely remain capped. There will be enough deep-layer northwesterly shear for organized/persistent storms along the front in IA, but the weak buoyancy will limit any severe threat. Otherwise, elevated storms are expected overnight from MN into IA as warm advection strengthens, but weak buoyancy will continue to limit storm intensity. Farther west, the monsoonal moisture plume will persist across AZ/NM/UT into western CO/western WY, with scattered (mainly diurnal) storms expected. Some gusty outflow winds will be possible in areas of steeper low-level lapse rates, but substantial clustering of strong-severe storms appears unlikely.

Northern Rockies Thursday afternoon/evening

After an embedded shortwave trough rotates northward over the OR/WA today, south-southwesterly flow aloft will persist through tomorrow from WA/OR into northern ID. The northwest edge of a monsoonal moisture plume will coincide with a weak baroclinic zone near the WA/OR/ID borders, with the potential for MLCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg and some enhancement to deep-layer flow/shear. Nebulous forcing for ascent (aside from local terrain) suggests that storm coverage will be too isolated and the threat for wind/hail will be too conditional to add severe probabilities at this time.

..Thompson.. 08/10/2022

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, August 10
TORNADO: low
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Thursday, August 11
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Friday, August 12
ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, August 13
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, August 14
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, August 15
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, August 16
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, August 17
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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