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Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, August 13

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100742 SPC AC 100742

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Organized severe-thunderstorm potential is expected to be relatively low through the extended-range period. A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to persist across the eastern CONUS into next week, and possibly retrograde slightly into portions of the central CONUS. Periodic frontal passages associated with this trough are expected to keep richer low-level moisture confined to near the Gulf Coast, limiting the potential for substantial destabilization east of the Rockies. Any notable severe potential would most likely evolve from the northwesterly flow regime that will be in place from the northern Plains into the mid-MS Valley and Southeast, but confidence in the likelihood, location, and timing of any such scenario remains quite low at this time.

..Dean.. 08/10/2022

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, August 10
TORNADO: low
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Thursday, August 11
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Friday, August 12
ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, August 13
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, August 14
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, August 15
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, August 16
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, August 17
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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