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Outlook for Tuesday, September 27

Outlook Summary

A couple of tornadoes will be possible across parts of Florida Tuesday into Tuesday night, in association with Tropical Cyclone Ian.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 250706

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA KEYS

### SUMMARY

A couple of tornadoes will be possible across parts of Florida Tuesday into Tuesday night, in association with Tropical Cyclone Ian.

Synopsis

The deep and persistent mid/upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to gradually deamplify and shift eastward on Tuesday. Farther west, a vigorous mid/upper-level trough will approach the Pacific Northwest, while a weak upper ridge persists over portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Dry and stable conditions over much of the central/eastern CONUS should limit the severe-thunderstorm risk for most areas, with the primary concern being the potential impact of Tropical Cyclone Ian across Florida.

Florida

Tropical Cyclone Ian is currently forecast to move across parts of the eastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane on Tuesday (see NHC advisories and forecasts for more information regarding Ian). Regarding the tornado threat, portions of the FL Keys and Peninsula are forecast to be in the generally favored northeast quadrant of the cyclone for some part of the forecast period, though the magnitude of low-level flow/shear will be determined by Ian's intensity and proximity to the FL Gulf Coast, which remain uncertain at this time. The cold front that will move through much of the Southeast early this week is not expected progress very far into the Peninsula, which should allow for some destabilization potential in conjunction with strengthening wind profiles. At this time, the tornado threat appears sufficient to support a Marginal Risk delineation across the central/southern FL Peninsula and FL Keys, with some adjustments likely in subsequent outlooks depending on Ian's forecast track and intensity.

..Dean.. 09/25/2022

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

National Risk Overview

Sunday, September 25
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: 5%
Monday, September 26
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: low
WIND: 5%
Tuesday, September 27
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Wednesday, September 28
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, September 29
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, September 30
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, October 1
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, October 2
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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