new youtube channel - we've just launched a new experimental youtube channel over at tornado HQ, including severe weather outlook videos.
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Sunday across parts of the upper Texas Coast/east Texas into Louisiana.
SPC AC 270824
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST/EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Sunday across parts of the upper Texas Coast/east Texas into Louisiana.
Upper Texas Coast/East Texas into Louisiana
A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough should advance northeastward from Mexico across TX and the lower MS Valley on Sunday. Modest low-level moisture is forecast to continue streaming northward ahead of a cold front that should advance southeastward across these regions through the period. Weak instability should develop across the warm sector with muted diurnal heating, with some steepening of mid-level lapse rates also occurring through the day. Strong effective bulk shear associated with a southwesterly mid-level jet should support updraft organization.
Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing Sunday morning across parts of east TX into the ArkLaTex in a low-level warm advection regime. The southern extent of this activity, and possible additional development along/ahead of the cold front along the upper TX Coast, will probably transition to surface based by Sunday afternoon as weak destabilization occurs. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for supercells. But, some uncertainty regarding convective mode remains, as thunderstorms may grow upscale into a line along the front. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with this activity as it spreads into parts of LA through Sunday evening. Additional convection may spread from the Gulf across parts of southern/coastal LA as a modest low-level jet shifts eastward through the day. Although low-level shear is forecast to be fairly modest, a tornado or two also appear possible.
The eastern extent of appreciable severe potential will be determined by how far low-level moisture will be able to advance inland in tandem with a marine warm front along the central Gulf Coast. Most guidance suggests that this front will either remain just offshore, or perhaps brush the immediate coastal areas of MS/AL and the FL Panhandle Sunday evening/night. Given this signal and uncertainty regarding surface-based convective potential over land, have opted to not include these areas in the Marginal Risk for now.
..Gleason.. 01/27/2023
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.