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Outlook for Sunday, January 29

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Sunday across parts of the upper Texas Coast/east Texas into Louisiana.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 270824

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST/EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Sunday across parts of the upper Texas Coast/east Texas into Louisiana.

Upper Texas Coast/East Texas into Louisiana

A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough should advance northeastward from Mexico across TX and the lower MS Valley on Sunday. Modest low-level moisture is forecast to continue streaming northward ahead of a cold front that should advance southeastward across these regions through the period. Weak instability should develop across the warm sector with muted diurnal heating, with some steepening of mid-level lapse rates also occurring through the day. Strong effective bulk shear associated with a southwesterly mid-level jet should support updraft organization.

Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing Sunday morning across parts of east TX into the ArkLaTex in a low-level warm advection regime. The southern extent of this activity, and possible additional development along/ahead of the cold front along the upper TX Coast, will probably transition to surface based by Sunday afternoon as weak destabilization occurs. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for supercells. But, some uncertainty regarding convective mode remains, as thunderstorms may grow upscale into a line along the front. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with this activity as it spreads into parts of LA through Sunday evening. Additional convection may spread from the Gulf across parts of southern/coastal LA as a modest low-level jet shifts eastward through the day. Although low-level shear is forecast to be fairly modest, a tornado or two also appear possible.

The eastern extent of appreciable severe potential will be determined by how far low-level moisture will be able to advance inland in tandem with a marine warm front along the central Gulf Coast. Most guidance suggests that this front will either remain just offshore, or perhaps brush the immediate coastal areas of MS/AL and the FL Panhandle Sunday evening/night. Given this signal and uncertainty regarding surface-based convective potential over land, have opted to not include these areas in the Marginal Risk for now.

..Gleason.. 01/27/2023

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

National Risk Overview

Friday, January 27
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Saturday, January 28
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Sunday, January 29
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, January 30
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, January 31
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, February 1
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, February 2
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, February 3
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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