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Outlook for Wednesday, March 22

Outlook Summary

Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail are possible from far northeast Kansas across northern Missouri and into far southeast Iowa and west-central Illinois late Wednesday evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 210522

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS

### SUMMARY

Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail are possible from far northeast Kansas across northern Missouri and into far southeast Iowa and west-central Illinois late Wednesday evening.

Synopsis and Discussion

Upper troughing is forecast to extend across the western CONUS early Wednesday morning, with more zonal flow across central and eastern CONUS. A belt of strong southwesterly flow aloft will extend from the base of the upper trough over southern CA northeastward through the central Plains. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward within this belt of southwesterly flow from southern CA through the Four Corners, central Rockies and central Plains. A strong jet streak, characterized by 100 kt flow at 500 mb, will accompany this shortwave.

At the surface, robust low-level moisture advection will already be underway early Wednesday morning. This moisture advection is expected to continue throughout the day amid lowering pressure across the central Plains and persistent southerly low-level flow. By Wednesday evening, the surface pattern will likely feature a low near the central CO/KS border, with a stationary front extending eastward from this low to another weaker low over northern MO. Low 60s dewpoints may reach as far north as the Kansas City vicinity, with mid 60s dewpoints remaining farther south across in the Arklatex vicinity.

Southerly low-level flow will strengthen across OK, KS, and MO Wednesday evening, in response to the shortwave moving through NE. This will increase warm-air advection across the frontal zone, which is expected to result in elevated thunderstorm development from northern MO into central IL late Wednesday evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong mid-level flow will support robust updrafts capable of hail. The severe threat is greatest with the initial development during the late evening, but thunderstorms will likely persist into Thursday morning eastward/northeastward into more of IN, OH, and southern Lower MI.

..Mosier.. 03/21/2023

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, March 21: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, March 22: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: low
Thursday, March 23: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, March 24: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, March 25: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, March 26: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, March 27: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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