Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, March 24

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200854 SPC AC 200854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper pattern early D4/Thursday is forecast to consist of a western CONUS trough and subtropical ridging centered over the Gulf of Mexico. Enhanced mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow will persist between these two features, extending from northern Mexico into the Great Lakes region. The surface pattern is expected to feature a low over northern IN, with a cold front extending southwestward across the Mid MS Valley, Ozark Plateau, and OK into southwest TX. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front D4/Thursday afternoon, supported by ample pre-frontal moisture and a combination of large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to a shortwave moving into the southern High Plains and convergence along the front. Given the expected vertical shear, supercells are possible in areas where a discrete mode can be maintained. This appears most probable from south-central OK into the TX Hill Country.

A shortwave trough will likely continue eastward across the southern and central Plains on D5/Friday. An associated surface low is expected to develop along the front over AR before then continuing northeastward ahead of the shortwave. Thunderstorms will likely already be ongoing along the front, and the severity of these storms will be linked to the amount of downstream destabilization. Reintensification appears most probable across central and southern MS, where some potential for discrete storms ahead of the front also exists.

Variability within the guidance limits forecast confidence from D6/Saturday through D8/Monday. The late-week shortwave trough will likely continue eastward through the Mid-Atlantic and coastal Southeast on D6/Saturday, but severe potential is uncertain given questions about frontal timing and low-level moisture. Moisture return appears possible across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley on D7/Sunday into D8/Monday, ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough. But aforementioned variability limits predictability.

..Mosier.. 03/20/2023

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, March 21: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, March 22: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: low
Thursday, March 23: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, March 24: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, March 25: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, March 26: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, March 27: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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