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Outlook for Thursday, June 13

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are most likely across southern Iowa into northern portions of Missouri and Illinois during the late afternoon to early evening. Very large hail, destructive wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes are possible.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 30%

hail 30%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 131215

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0715 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI…SOUTHERN IOWA…AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are most likely across southern Iowa into northern portions of Missouri and Illinois during the late afternoon to early evening. Very large hail, destructive wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes are possible.

Great Lakes

Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive shortwave trough over the Dakotas, with an associated cluster of showers and thunderstorms over eastern SD. This feature will track eastward through the day, with large scale forcing for ascent overspreading parts of southern WI/northern IL and Lower MI by early afternoon. Strong daytime heating in this area will likely result in intensification of thunderstorms along an approaching cold front, in an environment of steep low and mid level lapse rates and moderate CAPE. Activity will spread across Lake Michigan and southern Lower MI through early evening with a risk of hail and damaging winds.

Middle MS Valley

The aforementioned surface cold front will extend southwestward across southern IA and into northeast KS by mid afternoon. Strong daytime heating will yield afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s ahead of the front, along with a corridor of dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s. Forecast soundings in this zone show large MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg along with steep low and mid level lapse rates. Convective initiation along the front may be delayed until late afternoon or early evening due to warm temperatures in the 800-700mb layer, but eventually discrete supercells are expected to form along the front. Storms will track east-southeastward across the ENH risk area posing a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. Upscale organization into one or more bowing structures is also expected this evening with an increased risk of damaging winds.

Western KS to TX Panhandle

A hot and deeply mixed boundary layer will develop this afternoon from the northeast TX Panhandle into western KS, with temperatures over 100F. Most CAM solutions suggest scattered coverage of high-based thunderstorms in this region. Forecast soundings show inverted-v profiles, but also sufficient winds aloft to pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts for a few hours during the evening.

..Hart/Bentley.. 06/13/2024

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

National Risk Overview

Thursday, June 13
TORNADO: 5%
HAIL: 30%
WIND: 30%
Friday, June 14
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Saturday, June 15
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, June 16
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, June 17
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, June 18
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, June 19
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, June 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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