TORNADO HQ: waiting on update ...

Finding your location risk...

Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like lofi music and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

Outlook for Thursday, July 18

Outlook Summary

The greatest concentration of damaging gusts today should be over portions of North Carolina and extreme southeastern Virginia.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 15%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 181605

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA

### SUMMARY

The greatest concentration of damaging gusts today should be over portions of North Carolina and extreme southeastern Virginia.

VA to GA

A seasonably warm/humid air mass is present today from GA into southeast VA, with dewpoints in the 70s and afternoon high temperatures likely in the lower 90s most places. Afternoon MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg will encourage thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show rather weak mid-level lapse rates, but steep low-level lapse rates and ample PWAT for water-loaded downdrafts. The southern fringe of stronger cyclonic westerly flow aloft across this region will result in a few more organized clusters, capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Please refer to MCD #1676 for further details.

High Plains

Thunderstorms will develop once again today off the higher terrain of central CO/NM and spread southeastward through the afternoon/evening. Sufficient mid-level flow and steep lapse rates will promote a risk of rotating storms capable of gusty winds and hail, although CAM guidance varies on coverage/placement of storms. Therefore will maintain only MRGL outlook at this time.

Central MT

A strong shortwave trough it tracking northeastward across northern MT into southern MB. Lift in advance of this system should aid in the development scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the Plains of central/eastern MT. Full sunshine will steepen low-level lapse rates beneath 30+ knots of westerly flow aloft. High-based supercells and bowing structures are possible, with damaging winds the main threat. The main limiting factor for a more organized severe event appears to be weak moisture/instability (afternoon dewpoints in the mid 40s and CAPE generally below 500 J/kg).

..Hart/Halbert.. 07/18/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

National Risk Overview

Thursday, July 18
TORNADO: low
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 15%
Friday, July 19
TORNADO: low
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Saturday, July 20
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, July 21
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, July 22
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, July 23
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, July 24
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, July 25
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.


Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

 

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →


About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.