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Outlook for Saturday, October 5

Outlook Summary

Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 5%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 051240

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN

### SUMMARY

Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight.

Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes

A pronounced upper trough over the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces this morning will move quickly eastward today, reaching Ontario and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Sunday morning. At the surface, a strong low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will develop eastward into northwest Ontario through the period in tandem with the upper trough. A trailing cold front will sweep quickly eastward today over the Upper Midwest. Low-level moisture return ahead of this cold front will remain fairly modest with northward extent, with surface dewpoints generally reaching into the 50s. Rapid northeastward advection of an EML is also anticipated this afternoon across the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. An associated cap will likely hinder thunderstorm development until this evening, when stronger ascent and mid-level height falls preceding the upper trough begin to overspread northern WI/MI.

As convective initiation occurs this evening along/near the cold front in northern WI and the U.P. of MI, thunderstorms will probably tend to remain slightly elevated. Even so, adequate MUCAPE and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support robust updrafts and thunderstorm organization. Initially more discrete convection may pose a threat for large hail given the presence of steepened mid-level lapse rates and ample deep-layer shear. A more linear mode should quickly develop as this activity races east-northeastward across northern WI/MI tonight. Although there may be some tendency for the boundary layer to stabilize this evening with the loss of daytime heating, an isolated threat for strong to damaging winds may still exist given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow accompanying the upper trough. Based on latest guidance trends, have expanded the Marginal Risk for wind eastward to include more of northern MI with this update. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding thunderstorm coverage and intensity this evening across northern WI and the U.P. of MI, and no changes have been made to the Slight Risk across these areas.

..Gleason/Dean.. 10/05/2024

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

National Risk Overview

Saturday, October 5: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, October 6: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, October 7: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, October 8: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, October 9: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, October 10: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, October 11: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, October 12: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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