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Outlook for Sunday, October 6

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the western New York and Pennsylvania into West Virginia.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 050538

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA…WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW YORK

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the western New York and Pennsylvania into West Virginia.

Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity

A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to begin the period over central Ontario, with enhanced mid-level flow extending throughout the base of this system from the Upper Midwest into the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley. A pair of shortwave troughs are expected to progress quickly eastward/northeastward within this belt of stronger flow, helping to pull the cyclone eastward while also inducing a negative tilt to the system. By early Sunday, upper troughing will likely extend from the Ontario/Quebec border southeastward into the northern Mid-Atlantic.

Primary surface low associated with this system will remain occluded over Ontario throughout the period. However, a secondary triple-point low will likely be over central Ontario early Sunday, with its associated cold front extending southwestward through the Mid MS Valley. This low is forecast to push eastward across eastern Ontario during the day, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. A narrow corridor of low 60s dewpoints is anticipated just ahead of the cold front, which is expected to combine with cooling mid-level temperatures and foster modest buoyancy. Initial thunderstorm development along the front is anticipated across eastern OH, where a favorable combination of daytime heating and low-level moisture will destabilize the pre-frontal airmass.

Moderate to strong mid-level flow will extend across the region as well, which should allow updrafts to stay ahead of the quick-moving cold front for at least a few hours. Cold mid-level temperatures and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will support a hail risk with the strongest updrafts, particularly with initial development. Bowing line segments will contribute to a threat for damaging gusts as well. Surface winds will likely veer ahead of the front, limiting the low-level curvature. Even so, forecast soundings show southwesterlies strengthening from 15 kt at the surface to 40 kt at 700 mb, which does result in enough storm-relative helicity for some tornado potential if a discrete mode can be maintained.

Gulf Coast into the Coastal GA and FL Peninsula

Easterly/northeasterly low-level flow will persist for another day across the northern Gulf of Mexico, as a broad area of low pressure remains in place. Showers and thunderstorms are possible within the moist airmass, but weak shear should keep storm severity low.

..Mosier.. 10/05/2024

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

National Risk Overview

Saturday, October 5: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, October 6: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, October 7: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, October 8: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, October 9: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, October 10: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, October 11: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, October 12: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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