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You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020841 SPC AC 020841
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
A benign pattern for appreciable severe appears likely to commence by D4/Tuesday, although low-probability severe potential may exist during the period. In the wake of a dampening positive-tilt mid/upper trough near the Great Lakes on D4, an upstream shortwave trough digging over the northern Intermountain West should evolve into a cutoff low across the Southwest mid-week. A cold front slowing and then stalling along the western Gulf Coast to Lower MS Valley should be a focus for convection lingering from D3 into D4. Weakening of both deep-layer winds and forcing for ascent will be limiting factors to the severe-storm threat.
Modified moisture return will eventually spread back towards the southern High Plains, in advance of the cutoff low. This suggests increasing thunder potential on D6/Thursday, along an inverted surface trough. Even with some ensemble members suggesting ejection of the cutoff low onto the central/southern Great Plains late in the period, the overall pattern appears unlikely to support greater than 15-percent severe probabilities.
..Grams.. 11/02/2024
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