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Outlook for Tuesday, February 11

Outlook Summary

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Severe weather is not currently anticipated.

Outlook Images

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tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 110531

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Severe weather is not currently anticipated.

Southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley

Substantial large-scale height falls are forecast across much of the Rockies/Plains region during the day1 period as upper troughing becomes established from MT into northern Mexico. Within this larger-scale trough, several embedded short waves will eject across northern Mexico into the southern Plains/lower MS Valley region. Even so, surface response will not be particularly impressive as surface ridging currently dominates the Plains with the leading edge of this air mass (cold front) extending across the TX Coastal Plain. Latest model guidance suggests this air mass will be reluctant to lift north until very late in the period, and modified Gulf air may not spread inland until later in the day2 period. For these reasons it appears low-level warm advection will be the primary instigator in convective development through the period. Forecast soundings exhibit very steep mid-level lapse rates atop the cooler boundary layer, and this should prove beneficial for elevated thunderstorm development ahead of each ejecting short-wave trough, modulated by the LLJ influence. Given the steep lapse rates, and strong effective shear, some updraft organization may occur. While the strongest organized storms may produce hail, at this time it's not entirely clear adequate instability will exist for severe hail, thus probabilities will not be introduced at this time.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 02/11/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, February 11
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Wednesday, February 12
TORNADO: 5%
HAIL: low
WIND: 15%
Thursday, February 13
ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, February 14
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, February 15
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, February 16
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, February 17
ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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