Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like lofi music and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

Outlook for Sunday, April 20

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over central and northern Missouri into far western Illinois.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 30%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 181929

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over central and northern Missouri into far western Illinois.

Synopsis and Discussion

Models are in relatively good agreement depicting a negative-tilt shortwave trough and upper low moving northeastward from the TX Panhandle Sunday morning into IA by 00Z. The leading speed max will be compact but intense, resulting in rapid height falls across KS/MO/IA/IL.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen from eastern OK into IA, with a cold front extending south from the low and sweeping eastward across MO, AR, and southeast IA during the day.

As the low develops northward, a warm front will surge north across far eastern KS, MO and IL, with low 60s F dewpoints possible. Heating will occur as well, resulting in MUCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg.

Although instability will not be particularly high, shear profiles will become quite strong, supporting supercells with tornado potential. Several models indicate cells along a line and/or QLCS type structures with activity moving rapidly across the area, in a region with over 300 m2/s2 ESRH. Storms may form before noon across far eastern KS and OK, with a maturing line of severe storms into western MO and northwest AR by 21Z. Damaging wind and isolated tornado risk will peak during the late afternoon or early evening, supported by the fast-moving shortwave trough. Depending on instability trends, sig/hatching could be added in later updates.

..Jewell.. 04/18/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

National Risk Overview

Friday, April 18: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, April 19: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, April 20: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Monday, April 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, April 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, April 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, April 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, April 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.