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Outlook for Monday, April 21

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, April 21	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, April 22	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, April 23	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, April 24	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, April 25	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180734 SPC AC 180734

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper shortwave trough will weaken as it spreads east/northeast from the Mid/Upper MS Valley to the Lower Great Lakes on Day 4/Mon. The associated surface low will likewise shift northeast from eastern IA/IL into Ontario, while a trailing cold front moves across much of the Midwest. Modest boundary-layer moisture will aid in weak destabilization and some low-end severe thunderstorm risk could develop across parts of the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. The southern extent of this front will stall across the Mid-South and Sabine Valley. Richer low-level moisture ahead of the surface boundary across parts of the South could support some thunderstorm risk as well, but nebulous forcing and weak vertical shear will limit severe potential.

On Days 5-8/Tue-Fri, a low-amplitude, weak flow pattern is forecast. Southerly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will allow for northward moisture transport across OK/TX and vicinity. Diurnal thunderstorm activity could be possible each day given modest west/southwest flow atop a moist warm sector. However, a rather nondescript surface pattern amid weak large-scale forcing will likely preclude widespread severe potential, though localized areas of severe storms could still occur given favorable moisture/instability, particularly along any dryline features.

..Leitman.. 04/18/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, April 18: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, April 19: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, April 20: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, April 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, April 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, April 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, April 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, April 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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