Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, July 7

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, July 3	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, July 4	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, July 5	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, July 6	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, July 7	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300853 SPC AC 300853

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid-level ridge will start the extended period across the Plains on D4/Thursday. This ridge will shift east through the extended period. A surface low will develop in the lee of the Rockies and move slowly north and east, reaching eastern Ontario by D7/Sunday. This surface low and its associated cold front will likely be the only potential for any severe weather during the extended period. However, at this time it appears the stronger shear will be well displaced from the greater instability. Therefore, severe weather probabilities are not necessary at this time.

Outside of this frontal zone during the Day 4 to Day 7 period, thunderstorms are likely. However, weak lapse rates and very weak shear is anticipated, with minimal storm organization.

..Bentley.. 06/30/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, June 30: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, July 1: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, July 2: ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, July 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, July 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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