Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 9

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, July 5	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, July 6	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, July 8	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, July 9	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020857 SPC AC 020857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Some severe weather is possible on Day 5/Sunday and Day6/Monday across portions of northern Montana and North Dakota as moderate instability builds into the area with moderate mid-level flow southeast of a trough across western Canada. The evolution and timing of this trough remains uncertain and therefore, no severe weather probabilities will be added at this time.

Beyond this timeframe, moderate to strong instability is forecast across much of the central and eastern CONUS for much of the extended forecast period with widespread thunderstorm activity likely. Despite this storm coverage and instability, organized severe weather seems unlikely given mostly weak deep-layer shear/flow.

..Bentley.. 07/02/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, July 3: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, July 4: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Saturday, July 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, July 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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