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Outlook for Thursday, July 10

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, July 6	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, July 8	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, July 9	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, July 10	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030858 SPC AC 030858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

During the extended forecast period, a mid-level ridge will build across the InterMountain West. Aside from the primary ridge, there will be several mid-level shortwave troughs throughout the flow across the Northwest and also from the Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast. Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected throughout the period, but stronger mid-level flow/shear should mostly stay north of the stronger instability early in the period.

At some point next week (mid week according to the GFS and late next week into the weekend ECMWF) mid-level northwesterly flow will likely strengthen across the Plains (to the east of the primary ridge). Whenever this occurs, the pattern would favor severe MCSs given the forecast strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear. However, the uncertainty in the upper-level pattern remains too great to provide an accurate forecast of the timing and location of the greatest severe weather threat toward the middle to late part of next week.

..Bentley.. 07/03/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, July 3: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, July 4: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, July 5: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, July 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, July 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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