Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, July 11

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, July 8	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, July 9	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, July 10	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, July 11	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, July 12	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050846 SPC AC 050846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge will build across the Southwest and remain in place this upcoming week into next weekend. Relatively zonal mid-level flow will persist over the northern CONUS through the extended forecast period, with multiple embedded impulses expected to track eastward within the zonal flow. As the mid-level impulses traverse the northern Plains, isolated strong to severe storm development will be possible given the presence of ample buoyancy. However, there are appreciable differences in the placement and timing of these impulses among medium-range guidance members. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld since confidence is currently low regarding where and when organized clusters of severe storms will develop.

..Squitieri.. 07/05/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, July 5: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, July 6: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, July 7: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, July 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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