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Outlook for Tuesday, July 15

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, July 11	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, July 12	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, July 13	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, July 14	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, July 15	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080817 SPC AC 080817

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

The overall current large-scale pattern will persist through this forecast period, albeit with minor day-to-day variations. More specifically, a mid-level ridge will persist across the western US, although its center will meander from the Southwest US to off the coast of California and back; a series of shortwave troughs of varying intensity will quickly move across the northern Plains; and a very warm, moist environment will remain entrenched across the eastern US.

This overall pattern suggests episodic bouts of severe thunderstorms on any given day. However, the timing and location of specific episodes will be tied to mesoscale details and impacts from prior days' convection which have low predictability on time scales of this forecast period. As such, low confidence in the details of required to identify any of these severe events currently precludes any probabilistic delineation at this time.

That said, there are a couple of scenarios being monitored for potential future highlights. The first is the potential for severe storms across the southern Plains on Saturday or Sunday associated with a residual boundary/front. However, impacts from a potential overnight mesoscale convective system moving from the High Plains into the Southern Plains on Friday night into Saturday lead to little confidence in the placement of any boundaries and the resulting severe potential.

Another potential is for severe convection across northern Minnesota and the Upper Great Lakes early next week associated with a stronger shortwave trough moving through southern Canada. However, guidance continues to show high variance regarding the strength of moisture return, degree of instability, and timing of the shortwave itself to preclude unconditional severe probabilities at this time.

..Marsh.. 07/08/2025

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, July 8: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, July 9: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, July 10: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, July 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, July 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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