Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 16

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, July 12	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, July 13	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, July 14	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, July 15	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, July 16	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090818 SPC AC 090818

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

The overall large-scale pattern looks to remain characterized by mid-to-upper-level ridging across the western United States with a zonal to broadly cyclonic flow across the northern tier of the US through the forecast period. At the same time, rich/moist low-level moisture looks to remain entrenched across much of the eastern US, sustained in part by broad, southerly flow, albeit with some fluctuations in raw values. Global models continue to be bullish on a seasonably strong cold front pushing south through much of the central US late in the forecast period, ushering in a cooler/drier airmass.

Strong-to-locally severe thunderstorms will be possible somewhere across the eastern CONUS every day of the forecast period. However, with synoptic-scale forcing/dynamics primarily constrained to Canada, most thunderstorms will be determined by sub-synoptic/mesoscale details dictated by/reinforced with each prior day's convection. Thus, confidence is too low in any one location on any given day to introduce unconditional severe probabilities at this time.

However, some areas/scenarios of interest to monitor include the southern Great Plains on Days 4-5/Saturday-Sunday as a moist, weakly capped environment will exist in proximity to an increasing diffuse surface boundary. Other areas include the East Coast most afternoons and the along and ahead of seasonably strong cold front pushing south through the Great Plains from Days 6-8.

For each of the areas of interest/scenarios of interest above, weak effective-layer shear stemming from generally weak tropospheric flow will be a limiting factor for a more organized severe potential and confidence to introduce unconditional probabilities.

..Marsh.. 07/09/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, July 9: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, July 10: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Friday, July 11: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, July 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, July 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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