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Outlook for Thursday, July 17

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, July 13	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, July 14	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, July 15	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, July 16	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, July 17	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100816 SPC AC 100816

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

At the start of the forecast period, the mid-level pattern will generally be zonal across much country, with the greatest height gradient found across the northern United States. By the middle of next week, a short-wave trough moving within the broader flow regime will amplify the height field across the northern Rockies before moving into the central US. The overall pattern recognition would suggest the potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms ahead of this feature across then northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes. However, model run-to-run timing differences along with inter-model timing differences precludes the ability to identify 15% unconditional probabilities on any given day.

Associated with the aforementioned mid-level trough, a surface-cold front will push south through much of the Plains and into the East. Additional thunderstorms will be likely along the front, however, the location of the front on any given day will be strongly influenced by previous days' convection. As such, when coupled with the uncertainty in the timing of any mid-level wave, predictability is too low to identify unconditional probabilities at this time.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, July 10: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Friday, July 11: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, July 12: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, July 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, July 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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