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Outlook for Friday, July 18

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, July 14	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, July 15	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, July 16	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, July 17	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, July 18	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110840 SPC AC 110840

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

A surface cold front across the southern Great Plains early in the period will quickly redevelop northward into the northern Plains in response to strong lee cyclogenesis across the northern High Plains. This cyclogenesis will occur in response to a positive-tilt short-wave trough moving through the broadly zonal mid-level flow across the northern US.

This front will move back south during the period as a seasonably strong high pressure builds southward into the central US in the wake of the aforementioned short-wave trough. Thunderstorms are likely to develop in the vicinity of the front/aggregate outflow boundary each afternoon as it moves south. However, given the lack of significant flow amplification as the mid-level wave crosses the northern US, it is likely that thunderstorms will remain displaced south of the requisite effective-layer shear needed to promote an organized severe threat identifiable at this time range.

One exception to the idea that storms will be displaced from the better shear may take place on Monday/Day-4 across portions of North Dakota. Here, low-level moisture will surge northward in response to the aforementioned northern High Plains lee cyclogenesis. Steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the northern Great Plains during the day, yielding most-unstable CAPE values ranging from 1000 J/kg to perhaps 3000 J/kg depending on model guidance.

However, run-to-run inconsistency in the space and time evolution of relevant features leads to little confidence in identifying where any overlap of thunderstorms, instability, and effective-layer shear might support severe thunderstorms. However, if model guidance begins to converge on potential scenarios, probabilistic delineation may become warranted in subsequent forecasts.

..Marsh.. 07/11/2025

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National Risk Overview

Friday, July 11: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, July 12: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, July 13: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, July 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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