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Outlook for Saturday, July 19

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, July 15	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, July 16	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, July 17	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, July 18	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, July 19	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120730 SPC AC 120730

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Several shortwave impulses are forecast to move through low-amplitude upper troughing over the northern tier of the U.S. during the Day 4-8 period. At the surface, a cold front is expected to develop south/southeast across portions of the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest on Days 4-5/Tue-Wed. Given a moist and unstable airmass ahead of this feature, some severe potential is possible from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest. However, medium range guidance shows large spread in the location and timing of the front and any associated convection, resulting in low predictability.

Later in the period, strong upper ridging will develop over the Southeast. Some severe potential could continue eastward across the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic around Days 5-6/Wed-Thu as the aforementioned cold front stalls in response to the building Southeast ridge. However, large-scale ascent and deep-layer flow will remain modest, and any severe potential would likely be driven by mesoscale processes not well resolved at this time scale.

..Leitman.. 07/12/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, July 12: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, July 13: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Monday, July 14: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, July 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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