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Outlook for Monday, July 28

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, July 28	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, July 29	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, July 30	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, July 31	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, August 1	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250855 SPC AC 250855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

The strongest mid-level flow will move from the Upper Midwest into the Northeast this weekend into the middle of next week. As this occurs, a surface boundary will slowly sag into the central Plains and Ohio Valley. Given the very moist airmass to the south of the boundary, strong to potentially severe storms are possible along the boundary at least into the middle of next week. With the stronger flow/shear displace north of the boundary and model differences in the location, uncertainty remains too high for highlights.

Farther west, moisture will be pushed up against parts of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Between the terrain and shortwave troughs moving through the central U.S. ridge, it is possible strong to severe storms could develop and progress along the surface boundary into greater areas of moisture/buoyancy in the Plains. Given the dependency on the low-predictability shortwaves, it is not clear where the greatest risk will be from the High Plains into the Plains through the middle of next week.

By the end of next week, model guidance suggests a general trend of continued upper ridge building into Plains. Stronger mid-level winds will remain in parts of the Northeast with additional shortwave perturbations moving through parts of the northern Rockies. Severe risk along the boundary should decrease as it becomes further removed from the stronger flow. Though predictability is low regarding the shortwave troughs, some severe risk could develop in parts of the northern Rockies.

..Wendt.. 07/25/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, July 25: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, July 26: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, July 27: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, July 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 31: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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