Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like ~~lofi music~~ whatever music Hayley put on and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with

Outlook for Friday, August 8

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, August 5	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, August 6	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, August 7	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, August 8	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, August 9	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020900 SPC AC 020900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6

On Tuesday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to remain over the central Rockies, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the northern Plains. Thunderstorm development will be possible near and ahead of the trough across parts of the Dakotas during the afternoon and evening. Model forecasts suggest that the environment will support severe storms, mainly across western and central South Dakota where an axis of instability and moderate deep-layer shear is forecast. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are expected to be the primary threats.

On Wednesday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley, outrunning the moist and unstable airmass over the central and northern Plains. Isolated storms could develop in the wake of the trough over parts of the region, but the negative effects of a ridge aloft will likely keep any severe threat localized.

The mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as flow become west-southwesterly in its wake over the northern Plains. Strong instability could develop across parts of the region, mainly due to surface dewpoints in the 70s F. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak in most areas, a few storms with hail and isolated severe gusts could develop in the afternoon and evening.

Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8

On Friday, a mid-level shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the north-central U.S., as a trough moves into the northern Rockies. Strong instability is forecast to develop by afternoon across much of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are expected across parts of the region as surface temperatures become maximized in the mid to late afternoon. Although a severe threat will be possible, the presence of the mid-level ridge could be problematic for a greater severe threat.

On Saturday, a mid-level trough and an associated jet max, is forecast to move eastward into the northern Plains. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough from the eastern Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. It appears that the environment should support a severe threat due strong instability and substantial deep-layer shear. However, the projected scenario remains uncertain due to the extended range.

..Broyles.. 08/02/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, August 2: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, August 3: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, August 4: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, August 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, August 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, August 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.