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Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest this afternoon with both damaging winds and hail possible. Gusty winds may also occur over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico.
SPC AC 121628
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025
Valid 121630Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO
### SUMMARY
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest this afternoon with both damaging winds and hail possible. Gusty winds may also occur over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico.
Great Lakes/Midwest
Midday satellite/radar composite show a weakened thunderstorm band moving east-northeast across the eastern part of Lower MI. Surface analysis indicates rain-cooled air north of a gust front/outflow that has become draped from southeast Lower MI into the Michiana region. Heating south of this boundary has resulted in temperatures warming through the mid-upper 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Additional storms will probably develop along the trailing outflow and gradually move east-northeast with the mean wind. Considerably weaker deep-layer shear is present across the eastern part of the Corn Belt into the Lower MI vicinity compared to farther north over the U.P. of MI in closer proximity to a shortwave trough. Nonetheless, scattered thunderstorms will gradually develop within a moist/destabilizing airmass and pose a risk for isolated strong to perhaps locally severe/damaging gusts this afternoon.
Farther north in WI into the U.P. of MI, a weak cold front will move into the region later this afternoon. Model guidance shows widely scattered storms developing as filtered sunshine leads to a destabilizing boundary layer. A few stronger thunderstorms are possible and could yield a localized risk for marginally severe hail and damaging gusts during the mid afternoon to early evening period.
Southeast AZ/southwest NM
Strong heating should result in widely scattered thunderstorms developing near terrain-favored areas. Weak shear will result in disorganized storms, but the development of very steep surface to 500-mb lapse rates will promote strong evaporative cooling with the more intense downdrafts. Isolated severe gusts are possible.
..Smith/Squitieri.. 08/12/2025
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