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Outlook for Wednesday, August 13

Outlook Summary

The evolution of an organized cluster of thunderstorms accompanied by strong to severe wind gusts appears possible across parts of central through eastern South Dakota by Wednesday evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 120528

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA

### SUMMARY

The evolution of an organized cluster of thunderstorms accompanied by strong to severe wind gusts appears possible across parts of central through eastern South Dakota by Wednesday evening.

Discussion

As a low-amplitude shortwave trough progresses over the northern Rockies, a surface low will develop into southern SK, with a secondary low into western SD late in the day. Southerly low-level winds will develop over the Plains, with increasing 850 mb winds of 40-50 kt overnight from NE into SD.

Initially, the air mass will be relatively dry. However, a plume of 60s F dewpoints will materialize across the mid MO Valley, with strong heating over the High Plains a near the surface trough.

Storms may develop near 00Z over parts of SD near the Black Hills and near the surface low/lapse rate plume, with an initial hail risk. With time, storms should produce strong outflow, with a few severe gusts possible. Due to limited moisture, capping will become a mitigating factor after 00Z, and may preclude a more robust MCS. As such, a Marginal Risk remains valid for primarily isolated severe activity withing the broader zone of convection.

..Jewell.. 08/12/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, August 12: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Wednesday, August 13: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, August 14: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, August 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, August 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, August 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, August 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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