Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, October 31

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, October 27	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, October 28	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, October 29	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, October 30	potential too low
Day 8	Friday, October 31	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240857 SPC AC 240857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

The upper trough over the Gulf Coast is forecast to continue weakening before merging with an upper low over the Atlantic Coast through early next week. Residual moisture and enhanced westerly flow aloft could support some low-end severe risk D4/Monday over parts of the Southeast. However, poor lapse rates and the potential for multiple prior rounds of convection casts significant uncertainty on severe potential.

Thereafter, the mid-level flow pattern will gradually amplify as ridging develops over the Southwest. At the same time, broad eastern US troughing is expected to form, intensifying northwesterly flow aloft over the western and central US. A strong cold front will move southward into the Gulf by midweek with strong surface high pressure developing in its wake. Persistent eastern US troughing and high pressure over the central US will favor cooler, drier and more stable surface conditions for the foreseeable future.

..Lyons.. 10/24/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, October 24: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, October 25: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, October 26: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, October 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, October 28: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, October 29: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, October 30: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, October 31: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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