Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, November 4

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, October 31	potential too low
Day 5	Saturday, November 1	potential too low
Day 6	Sunday, November 2	potential too low
Day 7	Monday, November 3	potential too low
Day 8	Tuesday, November 4	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280820 SPC AC 280820

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

In the wake of a substantial cold frontal passage across the East, generally dry and stable conditions are expected to prevail through much of the extended range, as a large-scale mid/upper-level trough and extensive surface ridge persist across the central/eastern CONUS and limit potential for substantial moisture return.

On D5/Saturday, modest low-level moisture return will be possible across parts of Deep South TX and the TX Gulf Coast, in response to a midlevel shortwave trough digging southward across the Great Plains. Most deterministic and ensemble guidance (aside from the more aggressive 28/00Z GFS) suggests destabilization will be too weak to support an organized severe threat, though at least some thunderstorm activity could accompany this system.

Some thunderstorm potential could linger near the Gulf Coast into D6/Sunday and D7/Monday, but most guidance suggests only low potential for substantial inland moisture return and destabilization into early next week.

..Dean.. 10/28/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, October 28: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Wednesday, October 29: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Thursday, October 30: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, October 31: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, November 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, November 2: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, November 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, November 4: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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