Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like ~~lofi music~~ whatever music Hayley put on and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with

Outlook for Wednesday, November 5

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, November 1	potential too low
Day 5	Sunday, November 2	potential too low
Day 6	Monday, November 3	potential too low
Day 7	Tuesday, November 4	potential too low
Day 8	Wednesday, November 5	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290756 SPC AC 290756

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Organized severe-thunderstorm potential generally appears low through the extended range, with dry and stable conditions expected to prevail across most of the CONUS into at least early next week.

On D4/Saturday, a mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the central/southern Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. Some modest low-level moisture return will be possible across parts of south TX and the TX Gulf Coast during the day, in advance of a reinforcing cold front. The GFS remains the most aggressive regarding prefrontal destabilization, with other deterministic and ensemble guidance depicting weaker instability, and a tendency for any storm development to be primarily anafrontal.

For D5/Sunday and beyond, predictability decreases with time regarding whether the mid/upper-level trough will remain progressive as it moves across the Southeast, or if a deep mid/upper-level cyclone will develop and move only slowly eastward. Most guidance depicts limited inland moisture return and destabilization, though the more amplified solutions could support some threat for locally strong storms across mainly coastal regions of the Southeast into early next week.

..Dean.. 10/29/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, October 29: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Thursday, October 30: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Friday, October 31: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, November 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, November 2: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, November 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, November 4: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, November 5: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.