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Outlook for Thursday, November 6

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, November 2	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, November 3	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, November 4	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, November 5	potential too low
Day 8	Thursday, November 6	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300800 SPC AC 300800

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

A deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move across the eastern CONUS D4/Sunday into D5/Monday, as a strong upstream shortwave trough digs into the Great Lakes region. Guidance varies regarding the strength and timing of a mid/upper-level cyclone that may develop within the southern portion of the initial large-scale trough across parts of the Southeast. The strongest solutions (such as the 30/00Z GFS) would support some strong-storm potential across parts of FL into the Coastal Carolinas, but the current consensus is for a persistent surface ridge to suppress inland low-level moisture return and limit the organized-severe threat.

For D6/Tuesday and beyond, predictability decreases regarding the evolution of the upper pattern, but most guidance continues to depict a dearth of low-level moisture and instability across the CONUS through the middle of next week.

..Dean.. 10/30/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, October 30: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Friday, October 31: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, November 1: ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, November 2: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, November 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, November 4: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, November 5: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, November 6: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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